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| COMPLEX SYSTEMS SCIENCE |
| EMERGING SCIENCE AREA |
| Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation |
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Information on Projects Funded Through the CSIRO Centre
for Complex Systems Science
Full Projects Inference of Complex Systems Properties from Fragmentary Information Ensemble Prediction of Atmospheric and Ocean-Atmosphere Regime Transitions Targeting Drug-like properties in Chemical Libraries Dynamic Consequences of Species Interactions in a Parasitic Nematode Model Measures of Short and Long Term Viability of Agricultural Regions The Effects of Model Structure and Dimensionality on the Emergent Properties of Ecosystem Models Adaptation and Resilience in Regional Socio-Economic Systems Sources of Dynamic Resilience in Landscape Exploitation Systems Network Approaches to Managing Complex Urban River Systems Application of Complex System Science to the Study of Bushfires and Firefighter Safety Multiscale Modelling in Natural Systems Multiscale Modelling in Industrial Systems Renewable Energy Profitability Directed Assembly in Multi-Agent Networks (DAMAN) Top-Up Projects The Stability of the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation Emergent Behaviour in Coupled Fluid Agent Systems Links between Resilience and Information in Complex Adaptive Systems Dual Behavioural State Based Modelling of Multi-Agent Systems Understanding the Australian Options Market using Agent-Based Modelling Our National Electricity Market as a Complex Adaptive
System Initiate Linkage Research in Stochastic Cellular Automata Linkage Projects The CSS Working Groups A Review on the State of the Art in the Understanding, Modelling and Formal Description of Emergence Options for Complex Systems Modelling for Natural Resource
Management Cross-disciplinary Bridges in CSS Inference of Complex
Systems Properties from Fragmentary Information Safety, ethics, cost, technological limitations and difficult access often conspire to limit our capacity to collect data. This project aims to improve our understanding of how data characteristics and sampling techniques interact with our ability to model dynamical systems. This work is motivated by four seemingly different problem areas sharing the same underlying need to extract useful information from scattered, sparse, incomplete or indirect data, in order to predict, manipulate or control a system's behaviour. The problems include mineral search using chemical analyses, fire behaviour modelling, monitoring and optimising manufacturing systems and ensuring secure distributed storage for information. We intend to build upon the team's expertise on non-linear dynamics theory, natural data sampling, information theory, control and numerical optimisation. Also we intend to build on recent work on computational mechanics and closely related fields carried out at the Santa Fe Institute. We envisage the generation of theoretical advances, numerical tools and problem specific applications that will provide a solid foundation for a broad range of further applications within CSIRO. Ensemble Prediction
of Atmospheric and Ocean-Atmosphere Regime Transitions Regime transitions, such as when the atmospheric flow changes from zonal to meridional, associated with block development, or when the coupled ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns change in boreal spring, present severe tests of deterministic forecast models of weather and climate. The aim of the project is to study the dynamics and predictability of atmospheric and coupled ocean-atmosphere regime transitions. It is to examine the improvements in the skill of ensemble forecasts compared with deterministic forecasts, to improve methods of ensemble prediction and to develop ensemble prediction schemes for coupled ocean-atmosphere models with similar skill and efficiency to recently implemented methods for atmospheric weather forecasting. The general issues of regime transitions, self-organization of coherent structures and the suppression of instability and turbulence by horizontally sheared flows are equally of relevance to problems in other turbulent systems such as canopy turbulence, magnetized plasmas and the control of industrial flows....(Publications) Insect Agents in Plumes We examine agent-based models of insect behaviour in a complex chemical plume (of active pheromone). Simple rules are proposed to model the agent as a diffusion process on a lattice. Random steps on the the lattice are determined by a local pheromone concentration, which in turn is determined by spatial location relative to a fixed target source and random fluctuations caused by turbulent mixing. Such systems are important for pest control in horticulture (adding background fluctuations to disrupt tracking) and for bioassay (determining number density from pheromone-baited trap catches.)...(Publications)(more...) Measures of Short and
Long Term Viability of Agricultural Regions A human & natural landscape modelling framework will be developed as a means to understand complex interactions between the human and biophysical processes for two case studies. The aim is to analyse the impact of past and future landuse changes, e.g. land clearing and re-vegetating, and to assist in finding novel ways to improve the long-term viability of entire agricultural regions within Australia. The two case studies relate to the land clearing and introduction of wheat in the 1960s in the unregulated wheat industry of Western Australia and the development of the highly regulated cane industry in the Burdekin in Queensland. The Effects of Model
Structure and Dimensionality on the Emergent Properties of Ecosystem Models This research addresses the question “how can we best model the broad ecosystem, including anthropogenic impacts and their management, in order to better capture its spatial and temporal behavior?” We will build on existing agent-based and dynamical models of human-impacted marine, coastal and estuarine ecosystems, examining such things as network structure, spatial and temporal aggregation, parameterisation and process representation to develop methods and guiding principles for improving model structure and dimensionality, including metrics for judging these improvements. Adaptation and Resilience
in Regional Socio-Economic Systems Rangelands are complex human-dominated systems in the semi-arid parts of the world between deserts and cultivated lands. They are characterised by low population density and highly variable weather. Some of these systems had been used for hundreds or thousands of years with little apparent effect, but intensified use during last century has led to widespread changes in vegetation communities, environmental degradation, and other “surprises”. Complex interactions and adaptations of people, policies, and the biophysical system drive the dynamics of rangeland systems. The goal of understanding this complex adaptive system is to determine how system components adapt and interact to confer resilience to perturbation. Conventional approaches have not led to broad insights on dynamics of systems like rangelands, but new techniques linking dynamic biophysical models with multi-agent based models show great promise. We will develop models for four case study areas that vary with respect to weather, local issues, and intensification. This approach will be used to identify key interactions between humans, institutions, and the environment that lend insight to rangelands and similar systems. Sources of Dynamic
Resilience in Landscape Exploitation Systems World-wide, human beings exploit natural capital for their economic and social well-being. By doing so they create complex, spatial systems where interactions occur between economic, social and ecological systems. Experience, both in the distant past and the present, suggests that human-created land exploitation systems often fail in the long run. This raises important and practical questions. What types of land-exploitation are sustainable and, at the same time, profitable in the shorter-term view of individual land owners? Are there reasonable tradeoffs between short-term profit and long-term desires to sustain the Earth’s bounty into the future? This project is intended to contribute to the international effort to answer these questions, using principles and techniques of complex systems science. Network Approaches to
Managing Complex Urban River Systems Over the past three years, there has been a revival in research into networks, and an interest in the role and function of networks is at the forefront of this work. However, much of this work suffers from a number of key limitations including the lack of incorporation of the considerable body of research from psychology and sociology, and the failure to consider the implications of directed and weighted networks that are important features of real social networks. This research proposal seeks to address these limitations by using a network theory approach to analyse the management of the Swan River in Perth, Western Australia. Application of Complex
System Science to the Study of Bushfires and Firefighter Safety This three-year project will develop a hybrid model of bushfire spread through a near-homogeneous fuel that meshes the empirical understanding of bushfire behaviour derived from field studies with the fundamental understanding of fluid dynamics, combustion and atmosphere dynamics. It will be based on a 2-dimension spatial cellular automata (CA) that incorporates interactions between the fire convection and the atmosphere through the vertical dimension. This will involve an implementation of the dynamic feedback between the energy release of the fire, the size of the fire and the driving force of the lower atmosphere, which govern the shape and spread of the fire. It is hoped that the resulting model will provide a mechanism to explain the formation and spread of parabolic headfire shape and provide a test-bed for investigating complex fire behaviour under fire weather conditions not conducive to on-the-ground experimentation....(Publications)(more....) Multiscale Modelling
in Natural Systems Computational modelling of physical and physico-chemical phenomena that occur over a hierarchy of interconnected length and time scales remains a major scientific challenge. Even with new methods and computer hardware, it is generally not feasible to extend micro-scale simulations to the scales encountered in industry and nature. Seven divisions of CSIRO (CLW, CM, CMIS, CMIT, CMS, CPR, CEM) plan to collaborate on integrating micro-scale behaviour into macro-scale models in areas ranging across geophysics, the environment, mineral processing and chemical and manufacturing industries. This project will develop multi-scale modelling techniques for natural earth systems. Multiscale Modelling
in Industrial Systems Computational modelling of physical and physico-chemical phenomena that occur over a hierarchy of interconnected length and time scales remains a major scientific challenge. Even with new methods and computer hardware, it is generally not feasible to extend micro-scale simulations to the scales encountered in industry and nature. Seven divisions of CSIRO (CEM, CLW, CM, CMIS, CMIT, CMS, CPR) plan to collaborate on integrating micro-scale behaviour into macro-scale models in areas ranging across geophysics, the environment, mineral processing and chemical and manufacturing industries. This project will develop multi-scale modelling techniques for use in industrial flow systems. Renewable
Energy Profitability The difficult and expensive engineering tasks of moving towards a Hydrogen (H2) based energy economy appear to be politically on track under several funding umbrellas. Unlike similar efforts in the E.U. however, efforts in the U.S. seem to be driven by entrenched fossil-fuel interests. This manifests itself via plans to generate H2 from natural gas and other fossil fuels -- either as feedstocks of hydrocarbons to be chemically "cracked" or as traditional fuels for electricity generation leading to hydrolysis of H2O. Clearly, from the multiple viewpoints of global Carbon budgets, sustainability, resilience, decentralisation, and infrastructural devolution to small investors, such fossil fuel based strategies are sub-optimal. This work is explicitly not an effort to make distributed renewable energy the entire basis of future energy generation. Rather, it is an effort to give renewables an economic “leg up” so that similar economies of scale and market dynamics to those evident in the last 20 years of computing might have a chance to take hold in the distributed renewable energy market. The
Stability of the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation The aim of this project is to determine the stability of the overturning, or thermohaline, circulation in the Southern Ocean. Instability of the thermohaline circulation is believed to have driven large and rapid changes in past climates, and climate models suggest the overturning is sensitive to future climate change. A decrease in the Southern Ocean overturning is expected to reduce carbon sequestration by the ocean, alter the rate and pattern of sea level rise, and impact marine ecosystems. Past work on the stability of the thermohaline circulation has focused solely on the northern hemisphere. We propose to use dynamical systems theory and state space analysis to assess the stability of the Southern Ocean overturning. Emergent Behaviour in
Coupled Fluid Agent Systems The project will involve the study of real systems in which groups of agents interact with a continuum fluid environment, as well as each other, in order to investigate the effect that fluid motions can have on agent behaviour and that agent behaviour can have on the fluid systems. Prerequisite to these studies is the design and implementation of an interface between continuum fluid dynamics code and agent based modelling systems. Once developed, several real systems will be studied. Interactions, Information
Sharing and Simulated Reasoning of Fishers in an Agent-Based, Bayesian
Network Model of Fishing Behaviour. Reaction of fishers is an essential source of uncertainty in implementing fishery management decisions. Provided they realistically capture fisher behaviour, models of fishing vessel dynamics provide the basis for simulating the impact of proposed management strategies that are not yet implemented. Vessel interactions have not been a major focus of such models however, although they might play an essential role in the adaptation of a fleet to change. In order to address these issues we have developed a prototype agent-based model of vessel fishing behaviour for a line fishery on the Great Barrier Reef. We use Bayesian networks as a novel way of simulating social interactions and information flow among fishing vessel agents. By modelling the social interactions we seek to produce various patterns with the model, like alliances and animosities, and wish to determine the effect that such properties have on the status of the exploited population. Links between Resilience
and Information in Complex Adaptive Systems The behaviours of agents in complex systems (natural, ecological and
social) often represent the outcomes of tradeoff choices (production-survival,
specialisation-generalisation, competition-collaboration). These choices
have consequences for resilience (the ability to withstand internal dynamic
instabilities and external shocks). Dual Behavioural State
Based Modelling of Multi-Agent Systems We propose a short sharp attack the "Irish Pub Problem" as a prototypical test of a dualistic behavioural state theory of certain multi-agent systems. Instead of basing our work around "agents" exhibiting "behaviours", we choose to represent the problem using "behaviours" inhabited by a population of "agents". This is analogous to the master equation approach to the description of random processes. Understanding the Australian
Options Market using Agent-Based Modelling Understanding the dynamics of the Australian Options Market is important for successful entry and participation strategies. Such understanding is best achieved using agent-based modelling that is informed by experimental and behavioural finance. We propose developing an agent-based model (ABM) of the Australian Options Market using results from experimental and behavioural finance, as well as domain expertise. The complex system dynamics of the market will be compared against a baseline 'rational' agent model. Also, a limited econophysics analysis of the empirical data will be used as an aid to validating the model. As a project outcome, we intend building market software components that can be used in other CSIRO market model projects, and to be able to inform other market model efforts of newer thinking in behaviourally-based ABMs and econophysics techniques. Safeguarding
Transport Systems We propose to develop a generalised input-output (I-O) model of secured transport. Building on network theory, the transportation system of interest can be built up in terms of its component parts and processes, which are then modelled as rows in the I-O matrix. Initiate Linkage Research
in Stochastic Cellular Automata. The aim is to develop research in the field of stochastic cellular automata. These are seen as having greater real-world applicability than the more widely studied deterministic cellular automata, and also a being more readily studied with existing techniques from statistical mechanics. Cross-Disciplinary Bridges
in CSS The objective of this project is to promote interations between CSIRO CSS and the proposed University-based ACCSS. In consultation with the research groups I propose to explore lateral and and cross-disciplinary ways of approaching problems and pathways for the fluid exchange of ideas and collaborations across disciplines, and provide specific collaborative assistance and advice in the CSS themes, techniques, projects and applications that were identified during the 2002 CSIRO Complex Systems Science Workshop. |
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Last update: 20 June, 2007.
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